Antanas Mockus, the former “Supercitizen” mayor of Bogota who swept to power in 1993 after he dropped his trousers and mooned an auditorium of unruly students, is now the front runner in Colombia’s presidential election according to the latest polls.

Polls put Mockus twelve points ahead of the other leading candidate Juan Manuel Santos, a former defense minister who holds Uribe’s endorsement to be next president. While Uribe enjoyed popular support throughout his two terms as president for his aggressive champaign against the FARC, his administration has not been without accusations of authoritarian tactics and corruption, two labels that appear to have branded Santos’ presidential bid.

Santos, the architect of some of Mr. Uribe’s crushing blows against leftist guerrillas, had his reputation tarnished by allegations that hundreds of civilians killed by the army were counted as guerrilla combatants to increase the apparent success of the campaigns and to hide the heavy civilian toll.

Other scandals involving Uribe’s supporters’ ties to right-wing paramilitary groups have further darkened Mr Uribe’s legacy and the presidential hopes of his endorsed candidate.

And this begs the question: does Mockus’ popularity have more to do with the electorate’s eagerness to see in a change in the political landscape that has long been governed by a heavy handed right wing government than his own merits has Colombia’s next leader?

Is Mockus really a serious contender in Colombia’s presidential race, or a protest vote? Columbia’s Nick Clegg?

Last week’s general election in Britain saw the Liberal Democrats move out of the shadows as the UK’s third party. But despite opinion polls that placed Lib Dem popularity ahead of the ruling Labour party, and Nick Clegg well ahead of ‘dour Scot’ PM Gordon Brown, the final election results saw the Lib Dems with only 57 seats, well behind Labour’s 258.

Nick Clegg has now gone on to become Deputy Leader in David Cameron’s newly formed government, but that is the result of political negotiation rather than the electorate’s will (not that much of the British electorate is morning the loss of Gordon Brown at 10 Downing Street).

What these changes at 10 Downing Street mean for the British political establishment is yet to be mapped out. But there are questions that need to be asked: Is the Lib Dems’ first foray into the Cabinet changing the long established two party dominance in British politics? Is Nick Clegg pushing his party into position whereby they can make a serious leadership bid at the next general election rather than being seen as a protest vote? Or is the UK’s political landscape going to continue to be dominated by blue and red?

Similar questions need to be asked as Colombia goes to the polls in two weeks time.

Unlike the UK’s ‘first-past-the-post’ voting system, Colombia’s next president has to secure a majority in the first round of voting, or the two front runners go head to head in a run off. This first round is schedules for 30 May and it is expected to see Mockus and Santos then battle it out in a second round play off on 20 June.

Although opinion polls are currently billing Mockus as the clear front runner, a victory is far from guaranteed. As The New York Times recently pointed out that the polls that give Mockus such a clear lead do not tell the full story: The polls are heavily focused on cities largely ignoring the opinions of the non-urban electorate where he remains a relatively obscure candidate.

However, many strategists are predicting a Mockus victory, with some even suggesting that his current popularity despite being urban-centric could carry him to the presidential palace in the first round of voting.

But can Colombia’s politics really change its colours in one election, or will it just end up like the UK’s bruised mess of blue, red and yellow?

The Guarani Project